Structural transformation of the logistics and transportation market: new investment logic under US supply chain restructuring

The Logistics Pulse of American Industry from a Global Market Perspective

According to the *Logistics and Transportation Market Report* released by ResearchNester, the global logistics and transportation market will reach $1.4 trillion in 2025, and is expected to grow to $2.38 trillion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.4%. These figures themselves are not surprising; what is truly noteworthy is the regional growth pattern: North America is becoming the fastest-growing market with a CAGR of 4.1%, while Asia-Pacific, although still holding the largest share (42.3% in 2035), has seen its growth mature.

The acceleration of growth in North America—especially in the United States—reflects deeper changes. Logistics has never been an isolated industry; it is a mirror of manufacturing, trade policy, and supply chain decisions. When U.S. companies begin to shift production lines back from overseas or closer to home, when infrastructure investment refocuses on ports and railroads, and when e-commerce penetration continues to rise, the logistics and transportation market will be the first to feel this structural transformation.

Why Logistics Comes First? — An "Infrastructure-Level" Signal of Reindustrialization

The growth of the logistics and transportation market leading the reshoring of manufacturing is no coincidence. The first step in supply chain restructuring is often replanning the routes along which goods flow. The report notes that global merchandise trade volume grew by 2.6% in 2024, and a large volume of goods still depends on maritime shipping—nearly 80% of global trade volume is transported by sea. This means that if the United States wants to promote domestic manufacturing, it must first upgrade the connectivity and efficiency of ports, railways, and highways.

The report also specifically points out that governments around the world are promoting "national freight strategic plans," prioritizing improvements in network efficiency, freight corridor capacity, and multimodal transport integration. Although the report does not single out the United States, the 4.1% growth rate of the North American market precisely reflects the results of such policy-driven efforts. Logistics infrastructure becomes the "leading investment" in reindustrialization because it determines factory siting, supply chain response speed, and final costs.

3PL and Domestic Logistics: A Turning Point in Supply Chain Outsourcing

The report forecasts that by 2035, third-party logistics (3PL) will account for 65.4% of the logistics and transportation market. This is an extremely important signal. Companies no longer want to build their own fleets and warehouses; instead, they are turning to 3PL for flexible capacity, digital technology, and network scale. This "asset-light" model is especially attractive in the context of intensified supply chain volatility. For U.S. manufacturers, this means they can invest capital in production lines and R&D while leaving logistics execution to specialized companies.

At the same time, domestic logistics has become the dominant trade type. The logic behind this is that the resurgence of regional manufacturing and the expansion of local e-commerce make the rapid movement of goods within the United States more important than cross-ocean shipping. Data from the U.S. Department of Energy shows that in 2021, domestic trucking alone moved 12 billion tons of cargo—although these figures are cited from the report, they sufficiently illustrate the weight of domestic logistics.

Growth and Concerns: A "Tale of Two Cities" in Logistics Efficiency Asymmetry## Growth and Underlying Concerns: A Tale of Two Cities in Logistics Efficiency Asymmetry

The logistics market is not without its shadows. The report clearly identifies two core challenges: weak freight rates and insufficient digitalization.

Low freight rates are a direct consequence of oversupply – too many truck wheels chasing the same amount of freight. This is especially dangerous for new entrants, as price wars compress profit margins. But for 3PL giants that already possess network effects, this may instead accelerate industry consolidation. Insufficient digitalization means that many small and medium-sized logistics enterprises remain trapped in inefficient information silos, while large companies are building moats through standardized data interfaces. This will lead to a "binary divide" in the logistics industry: on one side are companies with technology and scale that benefit from market growth; on the other are small carriers lacking digital capabilities that will face greater survival pressure.

In the context of supply chain restructuring, what does this divide mean for American industry? It means overall logistics efficiency may improve, but unevenly. Manufacturing enterprises that partner with 3PLs and adopt multimodal transport will gain cost advantages, while those relying on traditional fragmented transportation will continue to suffer from high costs and low visibility.

The Next Five Years: How the Logistics Revolution Will Reshape U.S. Manufacturing Competitiveness

From 2026 to 2035, the logistics market will not grow linearly. We are likely to see the following trends:

• Infrastructure investment becomes the "new battleground" for regional competition. Port modernization and rail corridor development will determine each state's position in the wave of reindustrialization.
• 3PLs will transform from transportation executors into supply chain coordinators, playing a role similar to a "logistics operating system" for manufacturing enterprises.
• Multimodal transport will break the dominance of road transportation, especially on long-haul corridors, where the share of rail and water transport will rise.
• The digital divide will force regulatory and industry standard development. The United States may take the lead in promoting freight data interoperability standards, thereby lowering the barriers to entry in logistics.

These changes will ultimately answer a key question: Can the United States regain global competitiveness in manufacturing by restructuring its supply chains? The growth of the freight transportation market is only a microcosm. The real answer lies in whether these investments translate into higher factory utilization rates, job growth, and improved export capacity.

Core Observations

1. The North American logistics market leads the world with a growth rate of 4.1%, indicating that U.S. reindustrialization is entering a phase of infrastructure delivery. 2. 3PLs accounting for over 65% means that logistics outsourcing will become the mainstream choice for U.S. manufacturing, with asset operations shifting to specialized logistics providers. 3. The dominance of domestic logistics highlights the profound impact of "nearshoring" and "localization" on supply chain layout. 4. Low freight rates and insufficient digitalization will accelerate industry reshuffling, with leading companies holding technological advantages benefiting while small and medium-sized enterprises face consolidation. 5. Multimodal transport and port modernization will be the main themes of U.S. logistics infrastructure investment over the next five years.

Outlook for U.S. Industrial Trends

• Over the next 3-5 years, the U.S. industrial system may undergo the following changes:- Supply chain restructuring shifts from "passive response" to "active design," with logistics networks being planned in advance as part of the manufacturing system.
• The industrial geographic landscape will further diverge: states with deep-water ports and rail hubs (such as Texas and Georgia) will attract more advanced manufacturing investment.
• Logistics digitalization will become an extension of manufacturing digitalization, and digital twin technology may be used to predict and optimize freight routes.
• Tariffs and trade policies will continue to influence the direction of logistics flows, but supply chain integration within North America will accelerate—Mexico and Canada will become an indispensable extension of the U.S. logistics network.

This is not an ordinary market growth, but a "restructuring plan" submitted by the U.S. industrial system after a supply chain stress test. The logistics and transportation market is moving from behind the scenes to the forefront, becoming one of the most important indicators for measuring the quality of America's industrial recovery.