Volatility as the New Normal: The US Supply Chain Enters an Era of Continuous Adaptation

Core Observations

1. Volatility Becomes a Permanent Feature, Not a Short-Term Disruption The 2026 State of Logistics report explicitly states that geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and energy crises—once seen as temporary shocks—have now evolved into "persistent characteristics" of the supply chain operating environment. Report author and Kearney partner Korhan Acar emphasizes, "The forces reshaping global supply chains are no longer temporary disruptions but part of the operating environment."

2. U.S. Logistics Costs Decline, but Pressure Remains In 2026, U.S. business logistics costs stood at $2.4 trillion, accounting for 7.8% of GDP, down from $2.6 trillion (8.7%) in 2025. This decline in cost share does not mean easing pressure; rather, it reflects economic restructuring and more efficient logistics management by enterprises. What truly warrants attention are five structural pressures: asymmetric global growth, tightening financial conditions, shifts in trade flows, labor and productivity bottlenecks, and energy price volatility—factors with no short-term resolution.

3. AI Moves from Pilots to Large-Scale Deployment The report notes that AI has transitioned from a "technology worth trying" to a phase of "measurable business returns." In supply chains, AI creates value through four capabilities: explain, predict, recommend, and execute. However, AI adoption remains uneven: leading companies have embedded it into core workflows, while many others are still at the stage of isolated point solutions or even zero usage. Meanwhile, labor constraints are accelerating investments in automation and digitalization.

4. Strategic Shift for Enterprises: Resilience Over Efficiency, Asset Productivity Over Scale Expansion The report proposes four strategic takeaways: design for resilience rather than pure efficiency; prioritize improving asset productivity over expanding footprint; gain intelligence through end-to-end visibility; accelerate ROI assessment of digitalization and automation investments, and rethink capital structure and investment cadence. This marks a transition from the "lean supply chain" model of the past two decades toward an "agile, resilient supply chain."

5. Profit Growth Becomes the Top Priority Against a backdrop of rising costs and heightened volatility, "profitable growth" has become the highest priority for enterprises. Companies that can protect margins and outperform in a volatile environment will be the future leaders.

Why Is This Happening?

• The U.S. supply chain shift from "efficiency first" to "resilience first" is driven by three factors:
• Normalization of external shocks: From the Red Sea crisis to U.S. port labor negotiations, from energy price swings to Sino-U.S. trade frictions, companies realize the frequency of "black swan" events has significantly increased.
• Policy and regulatory push: The U.S. has enacted industrial policies such as the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act to encourage domestic manufacturing, but the supporting supply chain infrastructure still needs to adapt.
• Changes in technology and labor structure: Labor shortages and rising costs are forcing automation and AI deployment, while increased technological maturity makes scaling feasible.## Which industries will benefit?

• Third-party logistics (3PL): The report is presented by Penske Logistics, and Armstrong & Associates data also shows strong revenue growth for US 3PLs. In a volatile environment, companies are more inclined to outsource non-core logistics activities, and the integration capabilities and technology investments of 3PLs will pay off.
• Automation and robotics suppliers: Labor constraints and accelerated AI deployment directly benefit companies in warehouse automation, autonomous mobile robots (AMR), and autonomous trucking.
• Supply chain software and AI platforms: Companies that provide end-to-end visibility, predictive analytics, and decision execution, such as those using digital twins and AI to optimize routes, will benefit.
• Domestic manufacturers: Supply chain resilience priority means shortening the sourcing radius. "Nearshoring" and "friendshoring" continue to drive manufacturing investments in Mexico and the southern US states.

Which industries will face pressure?

• Manufacturing that relies on single low-cost sourcing: The long supply chains that previously pursued extreme efficiency (such as from Southeast Asia to the US) face higher risks and adjustment costs.
• Companies with heavy logistics labor: Under insufficient automation investment, wage increases and labor shortages will erode profits.
• Traditional freight and warehouse operators: Companies that fail to adopt AI and automation in time to optimize operations may lose market share.

What does it mean for supply chains?

• Report author Acar concludes: "Design for resilience, not just efficiency." This means:
• Inventory strategy shifts from "just-in-time" to "just-in-case," with safety stock levels structurally increasing.
• Supplier portfolios will be diversified, with multi-sourcing becoming standard practice.
• Information technology investment becomes a must-have rather than an option for supply chains, especially tools for end-to-end visibility.

What does it mean for corporate investment?

• The focus of corporate capital allocation is shifting:
• Reducing blind expansion of land/warehouses, instead investing in automation and smart upgrades of existing facilities;
• Accelerating ROI assessment of AI and digital projects, prioritizing applications that can quickly bring operational efficiency improvements;
• Re-evaluating capital structure to reserve more liquidity for dealing with ongoing volatility.

What does it mean for the next 3-5 years?1. 美国供应链韧性将持续增强，但成本将结构性抬升。物流成本占GDP比重可能长期维持在8%左右，而非疫情前的7%以下。 2. AI和自动化将渗透至供应链全链条，从仓储到长途运输，从预测到执行。领先企业将构建“自主供应链”雏形。 3. 区域工业版图变动加速：得克萨斯、亚利桑那、佐治亚等州因靠近市场和能源优势，继续吸引制造与物流投资。而中西部传统工业区需通过技术改造维持竞争力。 4. 政策不确定性仍是最大变量：美国供应链主权倡议、新公路法案（五年5800亿美元）等政府行动将影响基础设施投资方向，但长期效果取决于执行。 5. 赢家将是那些能够将韧性、智能物流与纪律执行结合的企业，正如CSCMP总裁Mark Baxa所说：“去年的供应链与今天不同，明年的物流网络可能几乎面目全非。”